My Stock Market Timing
Stinks!
Better Left to Professionals
Stock market timing is not an issue during a bull market. In the prevailing uncertain market conditions, however, you have a moving target.
Sure, there are people that get it right most of the time. And I must assume that some people are blessed with the aptitude and instinct for market timing. But I'm not one of them. To me market timing seems to be an art – not a science.
Many years ago I
enrolled for a prestigious, and highly acclaimed, course to study all
aspects of stock market trading. I really put my weight into it. I
did fundamental analysis of listed companies for months on end - even
though I found the exercise extremely boring.
I invested in the
recommended technical analysis software and spent many nights staring
at trend indicators and moving averages.
Eventually our
class arrived at the coal face – well almost. We started paper
trading. I invested as carefully as I could, doing all the analysis
that we were trained to do. My expectations were high. Surely I was
going to double my paper capital in no time!
Some months later
I liquidated my paper capital at a huge loss. That happened to 90% of
our class. My motivation to try again evaporated.
Years later a
salesman talked me into enrolling for a Futures and Options Trading
course. Once again I fell for the hype. Once again I was highly
motivated and invested many hours of study and analysis. Once again I
went the paper trading route. And once again I was wiped out!
After I retired,
although wary, I decided that I have the time and I must investigate
Forex Trading for myself. Yes, you guessed it! It did not work for
me.
Unfortunately
returns on retirement investments are so low that a portion of your
investment portfolio must be invested in stocks. My portfolio manager
is a professional with vast resources for analysis. Whenever he wants
to invest in equity, he phones me and we discuss the merits of his
recommendation. My studies were not all wasted time because it allows
me to understand what he is saying!
Sometimes I feel
an investment is too risky, but most of the time I go with his
recommendation.
Is his market
timing always right? No. But at balance he is more frequently right
than wrong. I'm comfortable to leave stock market timing to the
professionals.
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